Subject: The Collapse of the Western Global Disorder 1990 – 2018 24.06.18 11:49
The collapse of the Western Global Disorder 1990 – 2018
The Rise and Fall of the Western Global Collapse
For decades, the west accused Russia of destroying the liberal world order, yet that is essentially incorrect in various respects. Two international orders arose in the post-war period. One become liberal-democratic and capitalist led by America, the other turned socialist, led the Soviet Union. The disappearance of the latter as a counterbalance ultimately started eroding the previous. Consequently, after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, a proclaimed liberal international order upheld for a brief period, yet only on condition that each periphery of supplier, producer and consumer agreed to remain in their allotted roles. The fact that Russia had a hand in ruining it with its nationalist independence and international policies in the Ukraine and Syria is true. Adding a counterbalance becomes arguably a positive factor. Ordinarily, where there are no counterbalances, societies tend to drift to extremes, convinced in their superiority through lack of alternatives. Therefore, it is not a coincidence that the European Union with its top down approach and similar five-year plans arose from the ashes of the USSR, moving from an economic community to a political entity with all the trappings of a nation state within a few years.
Yet what did the liberal order resemble? The heralding in of a brief period of US and Western hegemony in the world, yet containing no liberalism. Moreover, the hegemony contained no choice, but nevertheless became forced upon dissenters, containing the belief that the world ought to remain governed solely by way of using Western political templates and values. The West assumed the right to both police and dictate on behalf of the international community. If that is freedom, then what is unfreedom? The previous International communism professed a similar doctrine and previous to that, the crusaders and colonizers who tried to impose Christianity, using the same territorial ambitions as NATO today.
Consequently, liberalism became not an order, but conversely, a regulatory law of the jungle in its worst form, a disorder. International law and norms of interstate relations became viciously trampled on. In 1991, the European Union recognised the independence of Croatia and Slovenia which had ceded from Yugoslavia. In the absence of international law, unilateral reputation was completely against worldwide regulation and became one of the factors that brought about a civil war in Yugoslavia. In 1999, NATO bombed the defenceless Yugoslavia for 78 days. The West eventually recognized Kosovo’s independence, yet no one even bothered with a referendum on separation. In 2003, most NATO nations invaded Iraq on a false pretext, killing huge numbers of civilians, which resulted in destabilizing the entire region for many years. In 2009, western aggression against Libya for daring to introduce an alternative monetary system based on the gold dinar plunged it into chaos which it has been unsuccessfully trying to recover from ever since.
Additionally, all this arrived accompanied by initiating various colour revolutions, causing turmoil and suffering. The Ukraine is the latest instance. Both Europe and the US attempted to cement the liberal order via constant expansion of Western alliances, especially NATO, which would inevitably have caused a large conflict on the continent, as many had repeatedly warned had it continued into the territories which Russia considered vitally important for its protection and survival.
These moves occurred whilst Russia’s weakness hid the deterring position of its nuclear capability. Over confidently, Russia as a military strength was no longer reckoned with. Having provoked a crisis in The Ukraine, the West quickly found out that Russia was able to dominate any potential escalation and it would inevitably lose if Russia commenced elevating the stakes.
The West’s attempt to set up hegemony became doomed without the participation of Russia, which had stopped the enlargement of Western alliances in Ukraine and a sequence of colour regime changes in the Middle East. The failed moves (which made them particular frustrating) produced the lack of western expansionism in the global political and monetary spheres the West had held for the last five hundred years.
There are various reasons for that, yet the most obvious one remains seldom noted.
The dominance of Europe, largely based on its military superiority arose around the 16th century. Utilizing their supremacy, Europeans began a global colonial and neo-colonial growth, enforcing Christianity, their political guidelines and trade rules. However, they themselves became the principle beneficiaries in the exchange. The starkest example of this policy was the trade with China, using opium as an exchange mechanism. In exchange for opium, Europeans obtained other goods such as silk and porcelain, while hundreds of thousands of Chinese ultimately died from opium addiction in a bizarre re-enactment of current practices within the west of medicated populations and available legalised drugs.
As England, which had commanded the seas for centuries, lost its superiority to the United States, the latter began to lead the way in advancing free trade based on its own dominant policies, yet using the same military supremacy in the non-socialist world. When the Soviet Union ceased to exist, it appeared that the liberal order would engulf the rest of Europe, ushering in the final chapter of history for the west.
1990 – 2018
The primary reason why the illusion collapsed is that a hitherto hidden tendency arose, namely the foundation upon which the global liberal economic order existed, military supremacy, started to disintegrate. As any previous Empire based on conquest, the western global disorder bled itself financially dry during the short period between 1990 - 2018 in providing bread for the masses to stave off a revolution and using its dollar advantage to keep ahead in an arms race.
Mutual nuclear deterrence between Russia and America, and now with China and several of the nuclear countries, coupled with different factors, makes big wars almost impossible between nuclear powers as they threaten to obliterate mankind. It also precludes wars with leaders of the liberal order - former colonies or semi-colonies – not only with their personal nuclear arsenals but additionally a main nuclear power, Russia, standing silently in the background and openly behind China. The argument that stubbornly refutes a slide into world chaos ignores the fact that those countries, which previously disarm their nuclear programmes, result in attacks by those who haven’t.
With the foundation of military supremacy destroyed, in its absence countries compete at an alternative higher political and economic stage where the developing countries already have an economic and competitive advantage. Europe and America are obviously losing the race and this largely explains the Trump phenomenon of economic populism and nationalism, as the hidden forces behind the institutions search for a way to remove themselves from the system they created which is no longer as beneficial as previously. The quest produces protectionism, the politicization of economic relations and tries to foil the economic interdependence in Europe, primarily based on Russian gas in exchange for goods. As behemoth aircraft carriers costing billions uselessly prowl the world’s oceans, sanctions and tariffs become the new norm of aggression in Western politics.
The current arrangement of two bloc confrontation cold-war is ready to crumble despite efforts, unsuccessful up to now, to revive it in Europe and additionally, build a brand new confrontation perimeter alongside China in the South Seas. The liberal worldwide order between 1990 - 2018 remains agonizingly fragile. The liberal financial order, which has become a burden to its creators, is in jeopardy, despite the fact that many different new leading players find it useful and desire it to continue.
The Great Global Order Deception
The entire assortments of professional experts sitting throughout various agencies in the west have clearly no idea what to expect. Since expert status involves a matter of knowing a great deal about little, knowing everything about nothing becomes the alternative liberal order conclusion. Enter the western science experts. From Hillary Clinton an American Secretary of State who confidently asserts that welfare creates wealth, to Jean-Claude Junker, a European Union Commissioner who declares that he is in touch with aliens on other planets and onto Al Gore (Nobel Peace Prize Winner), for scientifically proving that the world would terminate in a global warming ice cap meltdown in 2016. Likewise, President Trump joins in the unscientific nonsense by proclaiming that the Canadians burnt down the American White House in 1812 and Korea was once a part of China, which he says China’s President Jinping told him, so as not to appear clueless while passing on blame for the inaccuracy. Meanwhile, the populations cheer and marvel at the power of scientific expertise.
From dated warnings predicting an imminent Chinese economy meltdown, to the Russians invading Europe over a quarter century after the USSR collapsed, one suspects that there may be a rule involved. If expert careers depended on the continuation of X and X ceases to exist, no-one is likely to predict that event. Conversely, if an expert managed to accurately predict the failure of X, then they would also need to change careers ahead of time and therefore would no longer be an expert on X and their opinion on the matter disregarded.
Empires visibly fall when the following sequence of events begin to occur. a) Ideological change; b) Military decline; c) Alienation; and d) Enmity. When all occur simultaneously the end is both near and sudden.
As former allies abandon inclusion and protection, friendships deteriorate and former freedom fighters become rebels, just as their elected leaders become dictators. The Empire turns on those it deems no longer in its best interests.
After each regime change or invasion, experts and advisers pour into the newly occupied territory redesigning borders, plundering the economy and impoverishing the population to prevent any backlash of resistance. The vanquished once again become friends, as long as they learn their lesson and the enmity moves to the next in line who in turn become the new monsters and dictators.
As US and European productivity declined the debt mounted and western countries turned to socialism, America used military protection in exchange for the world using American dollars with the threat of violence. In the modern liberal world order the pro-democracy movements become a distant echo as lobbyists install themselves into congressional offices to draft new legislation favourable to corporations, while laissez-faire capitalism turns into crony capitalism for the western elites. Around one third of the American workforces are public sector employees, a non-producing grocery chain is the biggest private employer and approximately a hundred million Americans are unemployed, or statistically remain uncounted. Just as the Roman Empire finally invited its legions into Rome, the militarization of its police and National Guard are obvious indicators of its own preparedness when the old world order finally turns in against itself.
2018 and The Coming New World Order
The outlook remains unpredictable, whereas even thirty years ago the world followed a likely and expected path. Yet what will the world look like even in another ten to fifteen years, assuming of course that the implosion behind current events doesn’t lead to a world nuclear catastrophe in the meantime.[/font]
Political, social and economic orders are constructions; the output reflects the input and produces the same results. The art of prediction therefore centres around hindsight. The rise of empires follows a sequence of examples, as do their demise and although obvious early on, the experts are at hand to reassure that all is well, just as Nero played his fiddle as Rome burned.
1. Removing the Ukraine from Russia via a western orchestrated regime change and coup hoping to grab the oil pipelines and construct a NATO naval base in Crimea failed.
2. Invading Syria to remove Assad on the pretext of fighting terrorism while expecting Russia, Iran, Turkey and China to stand idly by, also failed.
3. Bringing Muslim Afghanistan western based freedom and democracy was an obvious failure, as the former USSR already discovered as they tried to introduce the ideology of socialism by force.
4. Destroying the Russian financial system using sanctions was an exercise in futility. The sanctions have helped Russia regroup internally and acquire a high level of self-sufficiency.
Domestically, making America great again is unlikely to succeed if it means a return to the days of the liberal world order in which America really was first. Only statistics and the main stream media remain, in which even allowing the scope of decline to filter through would cause such psychological damage, with a resulting loss of public confidence, that the system would collapse of its own accord.
Over the coming decade much will change and not only in the realm of new inventions and technologies. Also occurring, changes within the military-political base upon which a new world order will stand based on state sovereignty and international consensus. Consequently, North Korea predictably acquired nuclear status, which it needed after Iraq and Libya had deserted their nuclear packages and laid to waste. The liberal order is now busily bribing North Korea away from that path. South Korea and Japan could possibly follow in several years’ time as they realise the objective decline and reliability of their principal ally, the United States and also the growing dominance of China in Asia. If the policy of constant threats and sanctions against Iran persists, it too will strive to achieve nuclear status. The new weapons of destruction are cyber weapons, with the capability to cause damage similar to nuclear weapons and destroy economically and socially whole societies.
The next decade entails a risky and lengthy adventure. Risky to maintain peace and stability as the old world order lashes out in an effort to maintain its dominance and lengthy to enable the transformation in which some countries gain and some lose. The highly visible side effects of the transformation in the first-world, which are already occurring, include a downsizing in living standards for the majority reflecting the realism of economic productivity and not first-world rights paid for at the expense of others.
Future partnership spheres will be less restrictive than the prevailing forceful one, which is already less restrictive than the preceding ones. These are already forming in the East with Russia and China and include economic allies in the Middle East. Moreover, the recent ‘One belt – One Road’ Chinese initiative simply replaces and updates the old Silk Road trade route on which China originally based its commerce on with the west. The BRICS developing countries initiative, a decade old and largely unnoticed, already makes up approximately a quarter of the world’s economy and nearly a half of its population. South East Asia’s ASEAN is another recent addition of economic acronyms and this trend will continue making it increasingly tough to impose western political systems or cultural values needed to maintain the one dominant world order status.
The Membership of developing nations excludes the first-world from these associations and as they increasingly move away from the dollar reserve currency and seek economic autonomy this deeply frustrates the West. Just as the Congress of Vienna re-shaped the geography of Europe after the Napoleonic wars, the decline of the one world Western Empire doesn’t necessarily mean a decline of its civilization, but nevertheless, a needed re-shaping of the periphery model based on third-world supplier, developing producer and first-world consumer.
The foreseeable future which is already happening will continue with the world building a new global order model based on a Eurasian Partnership, which will also consist of Europe. Conversely, nothing new is envisaged inside the vintage Atlantic community. In reaching a new consensus, America will eventually agree to join, or revert to the isolationism of the 1930s. A world consensus of economic, political and military participation might well produce a period of economic growth never seen and benefiting all. Meanwhile, the same populations who now cheer for making America great again, or the European Union sound bite diversity is our strength, will eventually cheer on power-sharing if they see economic benefits, instead of the inevitable collapse of the western global disorder.
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The Collapse of the Western Global Disorder 1990 – 2018